A potential ban on online gambling in the Netherlands could lead to nearly half of at-risk players migrating to illegal online casinos, according to recent findings. The 2024 Online Gaming Barometer, published annually by the Netherlands Online Gambling Association (NOGA), highlights a concerning trend where regulatory measures intended to protect players might inadvertently weaken player safety.
The Online Gaming Barometer 2024 revealed a decline in the proportion of at-risk players among the overall gambling population. However, the report argues that proposed regulatory changes, such as increased taxes and stricter game restrictions, could undermine these improvements by driving players towards unregulated platforms. The survey, conducted by Ipsos, identified 39% of gamblers as problem players in 2024, down from 42% in 2023. Problem players were defined as those who had lied about their gambling activities or felt an uncontrollable urge to gamble more.
Dutch Gamblers’ Potential Shift to Illegal Sites
When asked about their response to a ban on their current legal providers, 47% of at-risk players indicated they would switch to illegal operators, compared to 25% who would not. Among the general gambling population, 37% expressed willingness to switch, with this figure dropping to 31% among no-risk players. Within the at-risk group, 48% would consider illegal providers if required to show proof of income, and 41% would switch if they hit their monetary playing limits.
NOGA warns that with channelisation at 95% – significantly higher than the 80% target rate – these findings suggest a crackdown on legal operators could simply drive existing players to unlicensed sites. These unregulated operators do not pay gambling taxes and would not alter their offerings in response to Dutch law changes. “Ninety-five percent is a commendable figure, yet it implies that approximately 90,000 Dutch people still gamble at illegal casinos,” stated Peter-Paul de Goeij, NOGA’s director. He stressed the importance of minimizing illegal gambling sources and cautioned that stricter regulations might backfire by pushing at-risk players towards these unregulated platforms.
Findings from the Dutch Gambling Survey
The survey engaged 2,806 Dutch adults, probing their awareness of the gambling market, participation, and attitudes towards advertising and addiction prevention. The results showed a rise in online gambling, with 16% of Dutch people gambling online in the past year, up from 13% in 2023 and 11% in 2022. The increase was particularly notable among young adults aged 18-34, where the participation rate was 29%.
Despite stricter advertising rules, almost three-quarters of Dutch people (72%) still encounter gambling advertisements, though this is a decrease from 80% in 2022. Interestingly, while two-thirds of players struggle to identify unlicensed providers, nearly all players reported gambling with licensed ones.
Recommendations for Improving Dutch Gambling Policies
Ipsos made two key recommendations based on the survey findings. First, it emphasized the need for identifying potentially risky gambling behaviour to prevent addiction. Second, it called for stricter oversight of the online advertising activities of gambling providers. “The responsibility for identifying risk players lies with the providers,” stated Ipsos. “Providers must take this role and their duty of care seriously, intervening early to prevent gambling addiction.”
Regarding advertising, Ipsos warned, “Some providers may not fully adhere to regulations. Ensuring compliance is crucial to avoid further tightening of rules.”
Industry Concerns and Regulatory Changes
The survey results emerge amid growing industry concerns over increased regulation and its potential to drive players towards the black market. A coalition agreement proposed raising the gambling tax from 30.5% to 37.8%, expected to generate an additional €202 million for the state treasury. However, NOGA has expressed fears that such a tax hike could push operators to the black market.
This proposal follows a recent vote by the House of Representatives to ban “high-risk” gambling, including online slots. The Netherlands Minister for Legal Protection, Franc Weerwind, is currently reviewing this law change. Additionally, the House has voted to ban online gambling advertising, building on a 2023 law that prohibited untargeted advertising.
In conclusion, while the Netherlands aims to strengthen its gambling regulations, these measures might inadvertently drive at-risk players to illegal platforms, undermining player protection efforts. The challenge remains to balance effective regulation with maintaining a safe and regulated gambling environment.
